Prepare to be astounded

I believe I can predict to within a few percentage points how many shares of SHLD failed to deliver during the second half of January.

I’ve got everything ready to go for my next post, save one thing: the most current stock delivery failures data, corresponding to the second half of January, which the SEC was supposed to have made available yesterday.

I’m particularly eager to get that batch, because it has the capacity to confirm or rule-out my ability to predict the future.

See, I believe I know, to within a few percentage points, how some of that delivery failures data — up to this point supposedly known only to the DTCC and SEC — will read.

But instead of going mad waiting for it to be posted, I’m going to very publicly make my prediction here and now, and then follow up with the actual numbers once published. I shall then take my clairvoyant victory lap around the tiny office where I sit.

Therefore, I do predict the following:

With a margin of error of +/-2.5%, Shares of Sears Holdings Corporation (NASDAQ:SHLD) will be shown to have experienced CNS delivery failures of the following magnitudes on the indicated dates:

1/29/2010 879,444
1/28/2010 873,222
1/27/2010 870,570
1/26/2010 851,904
1/25/2010 848,742
1/22/2010 865,266
1/21/2010 857,106
1/20/2010 1,535,508
1/19/2010 1,540,914

Please check back often between today and tomorrow (or whenever the SEC gets around to posting the final numbers) to learn how accurate my predictions turned out to be, how I arrived at them, and why this is very bad news for our capital markets.

(note: on 2/22 at 8:27am MST I adjusted my prediction)

  1. I’ve noticed a certain “gang” of posters on I-HUB that work a lot of stocks that have been naked short sold and have been on the SHO Threshold List.
    Funny that this “gang” on I-HUB includes names mentioned in a Canadian Court case and these folks showing up at SpongeTech(SPNG).
    Janice Shell & Jim Bishop,who are you working for and why SPNG?
    And who is this Patch character?

    1. I don’t know anything about the first two names you list, but Dave Patch is one of the finer and more knowledgeable people I’ve met, and if he says something is wrong, I’d listen to him.

      1. Judd, if you don’t know who Janice Shell is, you should jot her name down. You are sure to run into it again. Janice Shell was involved with Amr (Tony) “Nine Fingers” Elgindy on Silicon Investor, as supported by her own “white-washing” testimony in his sentencing document (twice somewhere around page 40 or so). She poses as a “volunteer fraudbuster” yet voluntarily helps the DEFENSE of a market felon like Elgindy.

        Janice is also currently moderator of (IHUB) board CMKM Diamonds Inc. She has a virtual army of “devotees” who bash stocks 24/7 on IHUB and as well. She is somewhat known as “The Queen of Bashers”, but she’s really just a tool of “short and distort” racketeers IMHO.

      2. I forgot to mention. There’s plenty more details on Janice Shell in your “FORUMS” section under “WISE CROWDS” – See the thread “The Janice Shell (Evans) Gang on IHUB”. I think it is your most viewed thread BTW. There’s a reason for that. It makes them nervous. LOL!

      3. Judd…how well do you guys really know David Patch ? I ask because Roddy Boyd (I am sure you know who that is) has spent a considerable amount of time and effort bashing Spongetech (SPNG) which in and of itself should raise an alarm in the minds of you investigative types…David Patch has done pretty much the same thing (spent considerable time bashing SPNG) and also openly stated he has spoken to Boyd about the lawsuit against him by SPNG…Patch works in tandem with a number of SPNG bashers on IHUB that serve without doubt as front-men/women for hedge funds and other financial institutions…the crime is so blatant that one can find the same coterie of relentless paid bashers that bashed USXP with screen names like janice shell, puppydotcom, dickandbabs, seabiscuit, overachiever, scion, Mighty_Mezz, etc., etc…with all due respect, you, Mark and Patrick need to be careful about associating with Patch as his game appears to have changed rather markedly to the dark side…

        A share count of SPNG has been ordered by the DTCC as of last Friday…this is a story you do not want to miss…IFF the results signify a significant naked short position in SPNG, I hope you guys will shed light on it and at least then come to the rescue of common investors by insisting the DTCC and SEC effect a hard cover…

        1. Arun,
          I’m afraid we’re not going to agree on much where SPNG is concerned.
          On Roddy: you have to understand that since his sugar daddy went bk, he’s had to try to make a living as a reporter the old fashioned way. Patch was one of the first to criticize SPNG. He told Kaja Whitehouse about it and Roddy Boyd showed up on his own months later, while scavenging for freelance work. As I understand it, Roddy’s and Patch’s interactions have been limited to a single, short phone call placed by Roddy. You cannot criticize Patch for being on the same side of as issue as Roddy when Patch was there first.
          Also, I’m in the process of preparing a post about the similarities uniting SPNG, USXP and CMKM but I don’t think it’s going to be the one you’re hoping for.

  2. Judd or Mark –
    Can one of you comment on this column posted at

    Lenco Mobile links up with recidivist SEC offender

    Using its stock as currency, Lenco Mobile Inc. (Pink Sheets: LNCM.PK) has spent the past few years snapping up cell phone and Internet marketing companies.
    Lenco’s share price has risen with the acquisitions, hitting a new high of $6.05 on Friday. The company now has a market capitalization of $389 million, and is seeking a listing on the NASDAQ exchange.
    But a Sharesleuth investigation has found that at least two of the businesses that Lenco acquired – for 8.5 million shares and other consideration – were connected to Michael Wayne Crow, the subject of two previous Securities and Exchange Commission cases.
    In November 2008, a federal judge found that Crow secretly controlled a securities firm called Duncan Capital LLC, unlawfully collecting millions of dollars in commissions while violating broker-dealer registration and reporting provisions. Crow was ordered to disgorge those earnings, with interest, and pay a $250,000 fine.
    He had previously settled another SEC case alleging that he engaged in insider trading as chief executive of a public company, and also filed false financial reports.
    Although one of Lenco’s SEC filings mentions a “Michael Crow,” the company has not disclosed that he is the same Michael Crow who has been barred from serving as an officer or director of any public company, or from associating with any broker, dealer or investment advisor.
    Crow filed for personal bankruptcy in California last month, listing $30,000 in assets and $11.5 million in debts, including $7.25 million owed to the SEC. In that filing, he said that one of the companies that Lenco purchased, for millions of dollars in stock, never had any business operations.
    Sharesleuth found that a third business that Lenco acquired is connected to Thomas C. Ronk, a former stockbroker with a history of disciplinary actions by the National Association of Securities Dealers (now FINRA).
    Ronk operates several investment web sites, including, which purport to identify companies whose stocks have been targeted by illegal “naked shorting” and are poised for price jumps.
    He also is partners with former SEC Chairman Harvey L. Pitt in, a site created to help short sellers locate shares to borrow so that they can remain in compliance with market rules.

    ( I’m replacing a bunch of text with this link to the rest –Judd)

  3. If anyone should be hired to replace the SEC so called management, it would be Dave Patch or you Judd and then privatize the organization and have it report to the DOJ if there are criminal findings and all cases must be resolved in 6 mos. Jail must be mandatory along with Ricco guidelines for all fines and loss of all licences that relate to the industry.

  4. So,upon doing some simple research,it’s easy to see why this “gang” that hangs out at I-HUB and Yahoo Finance is so worried about Mr.Patch.
    It would seem that a lot of these so called “bashers” that work these BullBoards everyday are concerned about naked short selling.
    But their concern seems to want to sweep everything under the rug.
    I am still of the opinion that SPNG and a several other smallcap stocks that the SEC is investigating are the big reasons that they’re looking at NITE and UBS.
    Kind of odd that a NITE executive would sell off his securities just recently.

  5. I’d like to know the details of how you came to these estimates…. any early hints? Watching certain orders and order behaviors on level 2? Options meta data? any candy you’re willing to share ? 🙂

  6. Judd:Upon doing a little more research on Mr.Patch,I discovered a letter that was written to the SEC by him complaining about SpongeTech.I’m not sure though if it’s the same David Patch.
    In any case this Mr Patch seems to think that SPNG is at fault.
    There are a number of issues at stake in this NSS case and I’ll mention only two that David Patch either doesn’t understand or simply hasn’t researched.
    The first item is the auditor(Drakeford & Drakeford)who was suspended by the auditing oversite board.SPNG must redo all their books for this reason.It takes time.Robison Hill in Utah is now the new auditor.Robison Hill also does forensic work for the FBI by the way.
    This brings up other issues.Did SPNG know their auditor was in trouble with the auditing oversite board?If not why?
    Did the SEC & FINRA know that the auditor was out of compliance?
    Why can’t anyone find out who the other outfits were that the auditor was doing work for?
    And are there any daily up to date records at the SEC or FINRA to show these agencies and the general public whether or not approved auditors are in compliance?
    If not why?
    Second item is the complicated issue and the standards governing Rule 144 on Restricted Stock.
    A public statement was made by a Mr.Metter an SPNG executive saying that Restricted 144 stock cannot and would not be sold by SPNG or their other Company named RME.
    However,Mr.Patch has to understand what the complicated guidelines are and the guidelines that exist for “entities” that have the right to sell Restricted 144 Stock legally and how this is certain holding periods
    And yes, it is complicated and 144 stock can be sold into the market very easily because of poor standards that are not fool-proof.
    In my opinion the rules around 144 Restricted stock are very old and too secretive,not transparent enough to the general public.
    This second issue is most important because a lot of Fails to Deliver revolve around these 144 Rules that haven’t been changed for many years.
    Until David Patch can answer to those two issues and discuss them openly concerning SpongeTech,then as we know,SPNG is innocent until proven otherwise.
    As David knows,the SEC isn’t allowed to comment on the investigation and where it leads.
    My own opinion is that some big brokers,hedgefunds and market makers got caught and the SEC doesn’t know what to do about a potential massive short squeeze.
    But that’s just my guess.
    IMO,the crooks got lucky for a bit but not for long and David Patch just might be wrong on this one.
    We shall see if David eats crow.

  7. Hmmm, plus or minus 2.5%??? That will be quite a feat if you pull it off. What`d you do, get a copy of goldman`s stolen code? lol

  8. Lila Rajiva, The SEC is a joke, Tom has a business and sold it. If his idea is good whats wrong? Did he go to jail? He made a mistake and its over with. move on

  9. And I also bumped into a tidbit of info on the I-HUB Court case.It would seem that a major player wants to make a deal.
    Maybe that means a means a release of certain informations and who a lot of these people actually work for?

    1. Robert, thanks. You wouldn’t happen to have a link to that “tidbit” about the major player wanting to make a deal in the IHUB court case, would you? I would like to know as much about that as possible. Thanks in advance.

  10. I second the motion for David Patch and Judd Bagley. SHLD is not the only one they were and have been abusing. And doing it with impunity. One has to wonder who was exposed that this was allowed to help reconcile. Dubai. Greece or another?

  11. Judd,
    Maybe you can do a similar analysis for PALM. I noticed they have 76% of their shares short, and and even higher 104.8% of all outstanding shares held by institutions.

  12. Over the last 8 years I’ve watched my stock porfolio die. Not because I failed to perform my due dilly, but because the SEC/FINRA protected the guys who stole my money.
    I’ve invested in a company that has a unique patent, which has applications in many fields that can enhance the everyday life of all. Yet it has been decimated by the Naked Shorts, who direct their employees over to the criminal message board known as I-Hub to bash this stock 24/7. Janice Shell, Jim Bishop, puppydotcom, overachiever,and all the other minions of obfuscation spew lie after lie for their criminal endgame.
    I know some of you hold David Patch in high regard, but when he lines up next to Janice Shell and Jim Bishop and enters the fray, his credibility takes a big hit.
    These Government agencies that protect the criminals have to be eliminated. Shit rolls down hill and I’m sick of being crapped on.

    1. I agree, the system is incredibly faulty, and the theives take full advantage of it…It is a sick World ( The Securities Markets)

      If the general public only knew what was really going on!

  13. Sick of Duplicity,

    I doubt very much that the Patch you describe is the real David Patch. I don’t know for sure, of course, but I’ve never seen the real DP involve himself in company issues of that kind. He has been a constant battler for justice and enforcement of the securities laws by the SEC. You can find him at and ask him yourself. JMOO

  14. Hey Judd:Have you asked the “Mr.Patch” that you hold in such high esteem if he is the alias “Patchman” on I-HUB that is slamming SpongeTech(SPNG)?
    If it’s a different Patch,my apology but considering the gang running things there,it would seem odd.
    Go ahead,I dare you to ask him and post a straight answer to clear up the controversy.

    1. Could be, but more likely, this report simply isn’t a very high priority over there. Since the SEC moved from quarterly to bi-monthly release of the data last year, the actual release date has been as much as five days late. If they don’t get it published today, we’re looking at Monday and a new record. Always great to see our markets watchdog striving to outdo itself.

      But because this is getting old, I promise that if nothing happens today, I will explain the basis of my prediction over the weekend.

      1. The + or – 2.5% is a pretty accurate estimate. Coming within 5% or 10% is pretty impressive to me. So your current numbers are estimated at:

        1/29/2010 864,661
        1/28/2010 862,035
        1/27/2010 843,552
        1/26/2010 840,421
        1/25/2010 856,783
        1/22/2010 848,703
        1/21/2010 1,520,454
        1/20/2010 1,273,307
        1/19/2010 1,520,050

        Hope they release today…. I’m still getting that stinking 404 at

        1. Yep…still 404ing me, as well. That’s fine. I’m working on something for tomorrow that explains how I arrived at my prediction, hopefully making the moment of truth all the more momentous.

          This is not easy, by the way. I’m wrestling with how to make the plain and simple truths found in a somewhat complex spreadsheet emerge.

          If I can pull that off, I predict many a dropped jaw out there.

          1. Looks like the SEC is taking their fair time publishing numbers for the last month… wonder whats going on over there.

          2. judd i’m curious if you’re using premarket and aftermarket volume counts, being it seems to me the ftds get cleared there using the previous days closing price. not so speedy/efficient sec eh? they still have not released ftd results for the second half of january! the sec again fails to deliver ftd data when expected!

  15. Funny how quickly the fanatical SPNG investor pool overrsn this great message board, and put their losing interests ahead of those actually interested to determine whether Mr. Judd can “predict the future”.

    Mr. Judd – I actually look forward to see how you did it, and would love to replicate and automate your process! (If it comes out true!)

  16. But,the fact that days have gone by and neither Judd or Patch will clear up the controversy and answer my questions about Patch says what?
    No guts on
    Neither one will step forward?
    What’s taking so long guys?

    1. @Bob,

      You come across as the basher. How many posts are you gonna make asking the same inane question ? I expect you’ll get a response. It’s not necessary to troll about. Perhaps these guys take weekends off. Is that a possibility ?

      Also, is it not a possibility that a thug might conceivably set up an anon account using a phony name along the lines of… I don’t know… DAVE PATCH… & then hit the message boards. Unless you were able to resolve IPs, for instance, or otherwise establish identity in the affirmative, you should just keep your trap shut.

      Perhaps you ought to read into the lack of response that you’re just not that important.

      Have a nice day.

    2. Robert, I’m not engaging with you on this topic because this is not the place to discuss it. is dedicating to investigating short-side stock manipulation, which is not SPNG’s problem.

  17. Go to the site:InvestigatetheSEC,all the information there has been gleened from groups of people that work the I-HUB Board on SPNG and from the Yahoo Finance SPNG Board.
    The information is all old and repetitive.
    Nothing new but includes all the same detail provided by “the group”
    This is what you call REAL investigative journalism.
    And is this the same David Ellsworth Patch or the alias “Patchman” that has been lurking and posting on these Chatroom Boards for months now?
    Hey Judd,Got an answer yet to clear up the controversy?
    Is it the same “basher” from the Boards?
    My apology if it’s not.

  18. Appears dimwitted, dipshit bashers are after Patch.

    When the crap hits the fan, these people(?) will be atomized to shiteverywhere and little else.

    When will the SEC go after board trolls?

  19. also Jim, don’t bother the SEC with this poop, they can’t solve their inhouse problems like NSS=fraud/porn! What you say?

  20. Judd,

    Your final response to Robert sure sounds like you spoke with Patch or did you read the cliff notes?
    If there is no shorting in the security Robert speaks of, then:

    Up is down, right is left and black is white!

    And I thought we were fighting the same war.

  21. It just so happens that Pike Capital Management in NY,who is investing in SpongeTech (SPNG),is a person who knows the owners of K-Mart and Sears.
    Pike now owns over 180 Million shares of SPNG and still continues to buy almost daily after selling another asset in China.
    Pike has literally saved the price while bulletin board posters post false information.
    As shareholders of SPNG we are still fighting a battle against illegal naked short selling.
    The person that I mentioned before,this “Patchman” who continually blogs daily on the I-HUB Board is still selling his cheap brand of NSS interpretation and posting mileading information.
    The only reason I am here is because this Board made such a big deal about this “Patch” with his website.
    I started to dig and found that he had an agenda against SPNG.
    Another post of mine was removed but here but this one is in a different form because this ” patchman” never disclosed his financial background to SPNG shareholders but has been very outgoing in his remarks.
    Therefore,since he does not want to disclose,I will disclose for him:
    David Ellsworth Patch(1586267)
    MFS Fund Distributors.Inc(31052)
    500 Boylston St.
    If you can go on I-HUB and bash SPNG then you need to disclose to your employer and the financial industry as a whole as to what you are doing for a living.
    Does his employer know about his website?
    I’m not trying to pick on this guy but he continues to post a lot of misleading information on SpongeTech(SPNG).
    Maybe Patrick Byrne should help us shareholders out and find out why the NY Post and others have it out to destroy SPNG.
    Don’t forget one thing David Patch,some time back,a couple of thugs came a knockin at SPNG and said to them “we’ll lay off the NSS if you dilute”
    Metter and Moskowitz told them to hit the road.
    I’m very sorry that Patch has got this one wrong,but if he keeps posting,so will I.
    We have the right as shareholders to fight back against garbage.

    1. Judd, my apologies up front for distracting from your superior analysis.

      Robert, you are a fool. The individual you accuse is not the same David Patch and yet from what I have found out, you and the Spongetech Loons harass this man anyways. You guys especially lose credibility when you make such accusations to media, congressional, and regulatory parties who know who I am and what I do for a living.

      Just because some crazed chick (Mingy) and a crook (Doug Furth) put this story together does not make it real. Like so many other theories and stories made by this duo, accuracy is lacking in their logic. I especially like their repeated misrepresentation of short sale volume as a function of total volume. We can learn a lot from watching the uneducated speak.

      questions for you robert:

      1. Why does SPNG’s Market only appreciate and garner support when PIKE buys into the offers? When they stop buying for any consecutive period in time the market collapses again.

      2. Why, after 5 months, can’t the Company release re-audited 2008 financials representing a paltry $5 Million in revenues according to past filings? The company couldn’t release 2009 audited financials until 2008 was completed and yet hey started the process in September and haven’t finished yet. Are they trying to create 2008 day by day?

      3. Why does M&M hide their share structure? CMKX, USXP, PCBM, NNOS all did the same thing and they were all con’s shut down by the SEC. Each company hid behind the false facade of NSS to perpetrate their fraud making real victims of NSS suffer due to the deceptions.

      4. Why does the SEC have a Wells Notice issued against these con men in which a wells notice is Notice of INTENT to bring civil charges against the company and officers?

      SPNG is another PCBM, NNOS, CMKX, and USXP as very talented con men reel in gullible investors and convince them of a dream that is bogus.

  22. Dave,its all about the same thing,you don’t have it, how can you sell it. also how can you buy something that’s not !

  23. LMAO. Why don’t you fools give Judd his due deserves and stay on topic?

    What transpired here by Judd was monumental. He was able to predict the future without access to the data regulators have access to. That is what this thread is about and the on-topic issue. If I were Judd I would remove all this other garbage as it detracts from his efforts and his success.

    Thanks Judd. Your efforts should never go unnoticed.

  24. Thankyou Judd for your answer, it was a kind way to show calling people FOOLS,DIMWITTED,DIPSHIT BASHERS and other names is the same as Gary W.

    1. Marry, apparently you had no issue with Robert and others harassing an innocent person to the point of trying to get him fired for comments he never made.

      My name is David Patch. I have spent a decade raising awareness of short sale abuses. Spongetech shareholders are outraged by the fact that I have identified that insiders and not NSS is creating their problems. in response they attack me and attack innocent people because they can’t/won’t open their eyes. it was the same with USXP and with CMKX. It is a hard and true lesson to what is wrong with this market.

      You likened me to Gary Weiss. That was amusing as you never questioned the repeated posts of others presented against me on a thread having nothing to do with SPNG. those that attacked me wanted to silence my opinion and you had nothing to say until i protected myself.

      I suggest that if you want to enter a conversation, you get the entire story before entering. The timeline clearly shows my patience and clearly shows your capability at pulling such a quick trigger on opinion without the facts.

      Anytime you want to stop hiding behind an alias and put your full name up for criticism and personal threat I welcome it. I will let these loons call you at all hours of the night and threaten instead of invading my household.

  25. My Dad told me when I was a little girl, (you can’t be right and wrong at the same time!) Please think about that. Again T/Y for your time.

  26. David, I read all and every post,you on the other hand I do not think got to see all of mine.I have read most all of your writings Judds and Patrick’s. If you saw my last post then I don’t think I would have to explain! David, tell me, would you talk this way to your mother? Maybe I have the wrong David Patch? T/Y.

    1. Marry,
      You do indeed have the wrong David Patch, and this is not the appropriate venue for this conversation. Please take this over to a message board dedicated to SPNG.

  27. Congrats on your accuracy predicting the fails Judd. I`ll call it yeoman`s work using this definition–

    3 : one that performs great and loyal service

  28. wow what will happen to SPNG…???

    staying tuned…

    Hedged my position from 877K to 400K

    so if Mr Patch is right, I wont lose more than I haved to,or hear him and others on ihubs SPNG board say see, we told you so, you lost everything on SPNG penny stock scam…… and if he is wrong… oh boy, get the wheel barrel honey we are heading to the bank!

    Either way I feel a winner, because I had planned on buying even more shares, but now believe this is the best plan for me, have enough to get PAID, but dont have too many to lose your shirt!

    God Bless everyone !

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